In Latest Poll, Brown Favored over Warren

With three polls showing Democrat Elizabeth Warren in the lead but the latest showing Republican Sen. Scott Brown ahead, it's safe to say the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts is a close one.

The U.S. Senate race is very close, according to a spate of recent polls.

Three polls show that Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren has the lead among likely voters in November, but the latest poll, conducted this week, predicts a Brown victory by several points. 

Neither candidate has established a large enough lead so far as to pull ahead of the polls' margins of error, meaning the highly competitive Massachusetts race will likely stay close until election day in November. 

The latest poll is by the University of Massachusetts Lowell/Boston Herald, which was released on Wednesday night. Out of 524 voters surveyed from Sept. 13 to 17, 49 percent said they would vote for Brown versus 45 percent who said they would support Warren. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. 

Similar to the previous polls, Brown was found to garner more support from men (20 point lead) and Warren had the support of more women (18 point lead.) Brown also leads Warren in support from independent voters by 23 points. But Warren holds a small lead over Brown among those who care the most about "fighting for the middle class."

"Brown’s apparent advantage is built on a narrowing gender gap among women and a widening gender gap among men," said Joshua Dyck, associate professor of political science and co-director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. These numbers also represent a significant shift from December and indicate that Brown’s campaign has been especially effective at winning over independents, including those who are Democratic-leaning.” 

The two candidates will meet on Thursday night in their first televised debate at WBZ studios. The debate begins at 7 p.m. on Channel 4. 


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