Lincoln-Sudbury Enrollment Expected to go Down After FY16

Lincoln-Sudbury Director of Finance Glenn Fratto told the L-S School Committee a trend in student enrollment was broken in FY14, but that trend will likely return for the rest of the decade.

During the Jan. 7 meeting, Fratto said historically L-S sees a decrease in enrollment as students move through grade levels. During this fiscal year, the number actually increased. The projected number was 1,627 students, but the actual number as of Oct. 1 is 1,640.

The freshman class is down nine students from its projection of 461, but the other three grades are up by a combined 19.

"We won't see a significant reduction or increase in school next year," he said. "We will see sig change four or five years out."

Enrollment has increased at L-S since FY04, when the school population was 1,503.

According to Fratto, projected October enrollment will steadily decline after 2016. After a projection of 1,640, the number falls to 1,498 by 2020, and 1,449 by 2022.

"The most important number is the survival cohort," Fratto said, which stands at 99 percent for all four grades in 2014, with an average retention rate of 100.3 percent. "Typically more students leave (the district) than come in, but that is not the case this current year. The survival ratio says a lot about the school."